Polymarket Traders See Limited Upside for Oil as WTI Hovers Near Four-Month Low

Prediction market traders are betting that crude oil prices will remain under pressure through July.

On Polymarket, just 20% of traders believe West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude will climb above $80 per barrel this month. Meanwhile, 52% expect prices to fall below $65, suggesting markets see greater downside risk than another geopolitical-driven rally.

WTI front-month futures are currently trading around $68.80 per barrel, near four-month lows after surrendering nearly all of the gains sparked by the U.S.-Iran conflict earlier this year.

The sharp reversal follows the unwinding of the "war premium" that briefly pushed WTI above $115 per barrel in March. Since a mid-June ceasefire framework between the U.S. and Iran, improving supply conditions, softer global demand expectations, and easing fears of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz have driven oil sharply lower.

Still, geopolitical risk hasn't disappeared.

Diplomatic talks between U.S. and Iranian officials remain deadlocked, with negotiations continuing through Qatari mediators rather than direct meetings. While the current ceasefire remains in effect, any significant escalation could quickly reintroduce a geopolitical risk premium into oil markets.

For now, however, Polymarket traders appear to believe the path of least resistance remains lower, with the market assigning better-than-even odds that WTI falls below $65 before mounting another run toward $80.